Saturday, January 08, 2005
Getting Lucky In Iraq
Breakfast with Bwana
JANUARY 8, 2005
GETTING LUCKY IN IRAQ:
The Secretary of American Defense (SAD) Donald Rumsfeld met, Thursday, January 6, with his top military and civilian aides, according to a report in The New York Times. SAD conscripted General (ret'd) Gary E. Luck, a former head of US forces in the Korean peninsula and now serving as an advisor to the Joint Forces Command, to go to Iraq. Gary, known to his friends as "Luck-E Gary" is to look at all areas of the operation, identify any weaknesses and report back in a few weeks with a confidential assessment.
I suppose it's okay to hire a consultant for such things. After all, it has not escaped Bwana's attention that everyday, American CEOs hire management consultants who don't know the first thing about their businesses to tell them how to go about fixing what they have fouled up. And, everyday, American investors listen to thousands of analysts, 99% of whom have NEVER run a business, telling them which company's business strategy will lead to what level of market share, growth, earnings, and -- mirabile dictu -- a higher stock price.
Now, if there is anything one can predict about the Armed Forces command, it is that they will outdo everybody else in finding determinable levels of incompetence. Unlike the rest of us "normal" Americans who are content with hiring a consultant who knows nothing about the area of consultation, the commanders and SAD will, inevitably find someone who has demonstrably already screwed up, as their man for the job. So what are Luck-E's credentials? No, not that ... he was not the inventor of the $10,000 toilet seat.
What we do know is that Luck-E was a senior advisor to General "Deaf, Dumb and Blind Pinball Wizard" Tommy Franks at his war-time HQ in Qatar. According to The New York Times, "a principal focus" of Luck-E's foray "will be to address one of the biggest problems facing the military in Iraq today: how to train Iraqi soldiers and police officers to replace the American troops now securing the country." This is the guy who advised Pinball Tommy on how to achieve what the President has called a "catastrophic success." That man has a way with words, don't he?
Did I read that correctly? Are American forces now "securing" the country? If you look at the same edition of the Times, the column right next to the one we are discussing has the headline: "SOME IRAQ AREAS UNSAFE FOR VOTE, U.S. GENERAL SAYS." This General, with a grasp for the obvious (for which he is likely to be fired - you see, having a reality-based view of the tactical situation rather than sticking to the goal-oriented military objective view - is a violation of the UCMJ, Uniform Cacophony of Military Jerks, a required membership unit for high command officers) is Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz.
Now, I pause to note that Metz, who, from the time that he revealed his ill-advised brush with reality, has come to be known affectionately to the rank and file as "General Mess" is only a Lieutenant General. To my Brit colleagues and readers, there is no "F" in "Lieutenant." Yes, if you insist, you may continue to say "LeF-tenn-ent" but if you had a $10,000 dollar toilet seat built by your command, you'd pronounce it "Loo-tenant" too, just as we doo doo here. See, etymology is fun, isn't it? But, I digress.
Luck-E was not chosen for the obvious fact that he also outshines former Democratic Presidential hopeful, John Kerry who has only three purple hearts and a bronze star. Together, those do not match Luck-E's four stars. Also, in addition to being Pinball Wizard's sidekick this time around, Luck-E commanded the XVIII Airborne Corps in the Persian Gulf in 1991. That, I recall, is when the Iraqi Air Force smuggled all its combat aircraft out of Iraq right under his nose and parked them in Iran. Not that it mattered, since we used so many cruise missiles before the laser guided bombs were launched from altitudes thousands of feet above the range of anti-aircraft fire. So, another video game jockey is now being sent to assess the situation on the ground.
We might well ask, what is the purpose for having Luck-E go to Iraq and what might we expect him to find and report? It is way below Bwana's standards to suggest that snagging of a bit of Luck by SAD is merely a subterfuge, so I will not do that. Let us indulge in the possibility that this is a sincere effort to find out what is going on.
Early last year, Major General Karl Eikenberry recommended that the Pentagon slow down fielding the new Iraqi army to focus on building militia units of what is now the Iraqi National Guard. Last April, Major General David Petraeus was sent to help step up the training and equipping of Iraqi security forces. American commanders have "expressed disappointment in the performance of many of the Iraqi forces" according to the Times. You guessed it -- yes, Petraeus was promoted to LeF-tenn-ent er... Loo-tennant General and put in charge of the training program.
Between Eikenberry and Petraeus, the Iraqi forces now providing security -- as for the projected election -- number 127,000 which falls far short of the 270,000 Iraqi officials have estimated would be necessary to secure the country on election day. Another comment in the newspaper's reportage, includes the comment by a Pentagon official that, although the current mix of US forces in Iraq is a 50-50 split between active-duty and reserve units, the active duty share in the next rotation will grow to 70% because the Army is simply running out of reserve units to call up.
So, Luck-E's report will say that the Iraqi training program has not worked; there is a short fall of more than 50% between what is needed and what exists; that US forces do not have enough manpower and there is no way to get reservists to go without extending the current limits of 24 months on their active service. It probably will not say that Eikenberry and Petraeus screwed up.
By the way, the Armed Forces are already looking for authority to increase manpower by 30,000 active-duty soldiers and contemplating a change in rules to allow reservists to be called up for multiple tours as long as each does not exceed 24 months.
Doesn't it sound like we already know what we need to know and what Luck-E will find? Now, before you leap to answer, go back to the first paragraph of this comment and you will note that SAD wants Luck-E's report to be "confidential." Bwana wants to expose this for what it is -- another episode in the belief of SAD and the UCMJ that if you take the obvious truth and put it in a "confidential" report, it somehow becomes a secret.
As for General Mess, in commenting on the impact of the inadequate security on the elections and the fear of voters, he said: "Part of democracy is the right to choose. If people choose to boycott the election, that is their choice."
Really, folks, General Mess really, really said that. I did not make it up. Did you ever think that the day would come when a country claiming to bring democracy to another would have one of its armed forces spokespeople say it is okay not to vote if you choose to stay away because you are afraid that by exercising your right to vote, you will be killed? Maybe General Mess won't be fired, after all. In the grand tradition of UCMJ, he said the right thing.
What a mess. I don't think we are going to get lucky on this one, even with Luck-E.
Cheerz....Bwana
JANUARY 8, 2005
GETTING LUCKY IN IRAQ:
The Secretary of American Defense (SAD) Donald Rumsfeld met, Thursday, January 6, with his top military and civilian aides, according to a report in The New York Times. SAD conscripted General (ret'd) Gary E. Luck, a former head of US forces in the Korean peninsula and now serving as an advisor to the Joint Forces Command, to go to Iraq. Gary, known to his friends as "Luck-E Gary" is to look at all areas of the operation, identify any weaknesses and report back in a few weeks with a confidential assessment.
I suppose it's okay to hire a consultant for such things. After all, it has not escaped Bwana's attention that everyday, American CEOs hire management consultants who don't know the first thing about their businesses to tell them how to go about fixing what they have fouled up. And, everyday, American investors listen to thousands of analysts, 99% of whom have NEVER run a business, telling them which company's business strategy will lead to what level of market share, growth, earnings, and -- mirabile dictu -- a higher stock price.
Now, if there is anything one can predict about the Armed Forces command, it is that they will outdo everybody else in finding determinable levels of incompetence. Unlike the rest of us "normal" Americans who are content with hiring a consultant who knows nothing about the area of consultation, the commanders and SAD will, inevitably find someone who has demonstrably already screwed up, as their man for the job. So what are Luck-E's credentials? No, not that ... he was not the inventor of the $10,000 toilet seat.
What we do know is that Luck-E was a senior advisor to General "Deaf, Dumb and Blind Pinball Wizard" Tommy Franks at his war-time HQ in Qatar. According to The New York Times, "a principal focus" of Luck-E's foray "will be to address one of the biggest problems facing the military in Iraq today: how to train Iraqi soldiers and police officers to replace the American troops now securing the country." This is the guy who advised Pinball Tommy on how to achieve what the President has called a "catastrophic success." That man has a way with words, don't he?
Did I read that correctly? Are American forces now "securing" the country? If you look at the same edition of the Times, the column right next to the one we are discussing has the headline: "SOME IRAQ AREAS UNSAFE FOR VOTE, U.S. GENERAL SAYS." This General, with a grasp for the obvious (for which he is likely to be fired - you see, having a reality-based view of the tactical situation rather than sticking to the goal-oriented military objective view - is a violation of the UCMJ, Uniform Cacophony of Military Jerks, a required membership unit for high command officers) is Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz.
Now, I pause to note that Metz, who, from the time that he revealed his ill-advised brush with reality, has come to be known affectionately to the rank and file as "General Mess" is only a Lieutenant General. To my Brit colleagues and readers, there is no "F" in "Lieutenant." Yes, if you insist, you may continue to say "LeF-tenn-ent" but if you had a $10,000 dollar toilet seat built by your command, you'd pronounce it "Loo-tenant" too, just as we doo doo here. See, etymology is fun, isn't it? But, I digress.
Luck-E was not chosen for the obvious fact that he also outshines former Democratic Presidential hopeful, John Kerry who has only three purple hearts and a bronze star. Together, those do not match Luck-E's four stars. Also, in addition to being Pinball Wizard's sidekick this time around, Luck-E commanded the XVIII Airborne Corps in the Persian Gulf in 1991. That, I recall, is when the Iraqi Air Force smuggled all its combat aircraft out of Iraq right under his nose and parked them in Iran. Not that it mattered, since we used so many cruise missiles before the laser guided bombs were launched from altitudes thousands of feet above the range of anti-aircraft fire. So, another video game jockey is now being sent to assess the situation on the ground.
We might well ask, what is the purpose for having Luck-E go to Iraq and what might we expect him to find and report? It is way below Bwana's standards to suggest that snagging of a bit of Luck by SAD is merely a subterfuge, so I will not do that. Let us indulge in the possibility that this is a sincere effort to find out what is going on.
Early last year, Major General Karl Eikenberry recommended that the Pentagon slow down fielding the new Iraqi army to focus on building militia units of what is now the Iraqi National Guard. Last April, Major General David Petraeus was sent to help step up the training and equipping of Iraqi security forces. American commanders have "expressed disappointment in the performance of many of the Iraqi forces" according to the Times. You guessed it -- yes, Petraeus was promoted to LeF-tenn-ent er... Loo-tennant General and put in charge of the training program.
Between Eikenberry and Petraeus, the Iraqi forces now providing security -- as for the projected election -- number 127,000 which falls far short of the 270,000 Iraqi officials have estimated would be necessary to secure the country on election day. Another comment in the newspaper's reportage, includes the comment by a Pentagon official that, although the current mix of US forces in Iraq is a 50-50 split between active-duty and reserve units, the active duty share in the next rotation will grow to 70% because the Army is simply running out of reserve units to call up.
So, Luck-E's report will say that the Iraqi training program has not worked; there is a short fall of more than 50% between what is needed and what exists; that US forces do not have enough manpower and there is no way to get reservists to go without extending the current limits of 24 months on their active service. It probably will not say that Eikenberry and Petraeus screwed up.
By the way, the Armed Forces are already looking for authority to increase manpower by 30,000 active-duty soldiers and contemplating a change in rules to allow reservists to be called up for multiple tours as long as each does not exceed 24 months.
Doesn't it sound like we already know what we need to know and what Luck-E will find? Now, before you leap to answer, go back to the first paragraph of this comment and you will note that SAD wants Luck-E's report to be "confidential." Bwana wants to expose this for what it is -- another episode in the belief of SAD and the UCMJ that if you take the obvious truth and put it in a "confidential" report, it somehow becomes a secret.
As for General Mess, in commenting on the impact of the inadequate security on the elections and the fear of voters, he said: "Part of democracy is the right to choose. If people choose to boycott the election, that is their choice."
Really, folks, General Mess really, really said that. I did not make it up. Did you ever think that the day would come when a country claiming to bring democracy to another would have one of its armed forces spokespeople say it is okay not to vote if you choose to stay away because you are afraid that by exercising your right to vote, you will be killed? Maybe General Mess won't be fired, after all. In the grand tradition of UCMJ, he said the right thing.
What a mess. I don't think we are going to get lucky on this one, even with Luck-E.
Cheerz....Bwana
